Trump-Russia-Ukraine War-Saudi Arabia: Threading the Needle Through a Perfect Storm
As the US grapples with the crisis escalating in Ukraine and the related implications, it is noteworthy that the consequences are reverberating in the Middle East as well. President Vladimir Putin of Russia came out in support of Russia-friendly President Viktor Yanukovych of Ukraine against the pro-Western opposition protests that have led to a deadly confrontation that threatens to unravel Ukraine as a nation and deepen Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical ambitions.
In response to the escalating tensions following the US-backed Ukrainian”revolution,” President Putin orchestrated a military incursion into Crimea, a region in southeastern Ukraine, ostensibly in an effort to maintain Russia’s strategic interests and to protect ethnic Russians threatening to be swamped by the rising tide of neo-Nazi Ukrainian nationalists. While efforts to deescalate the situation have so far become increasingly futile, President Putin’s gamble may ultimately backfire, as rapidly evolving domestic and international realities demand greater emphasis on weaning off Russia’s heavy dependence on oil revenues and energy exports to Europe in the wake of a possible Ukraine-induced economic and diplomatic backlash.
The aforementioned has broader implications in the Middle East as well. Given eroding oil revenue and its current deepening financial crisis, a potential sharp drop in demand for Russia’s energy export to Europe would severely undermine President Putin’s ambitious effort to create a Russia-dominated gas cartel that rivals the Europe led gas producers in the Persian Gulf. What will be crucial for the Middle East in the evolving situation is the extent to which the West will be successful in applying sanctions against an over-stretched Russian war machine while fortifying European energy security as against Russia’s geopolitical ambitions. Some will see it as an opportunity for greater Saudi Arabian and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) interests in meeting Europe’s energy needs.
However, in a recent speech that has apparently been received relatively lukewarmly in Tunisia, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned a summit of the Western-backed North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) allies that: “We are facing a new reality in which Iran is acting to sow terror, prop up dictatorships, and arm itself with nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.” Prime Minister Netanyahu’s carefully orchestrated backdoor political maneuvering, complemented by steadfast Israeli economic and military support to its longstanding Arab strategic allies, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the GCC, would undoubtedly extend the breadth and depth of the Israeli strategic footprint in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Levant and the Persian Gulf, thus signaling that Israel has wider strategic interests in the region that transcend the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Meanwhile, in an effort to counter Iran’s imminent ascendancy to dominance in the Sunni-majority Arab Middle East, Prime Minister Netanyahu has reached out to President Erdogan of Turkey to jointly bolster Israel’s strategic position in the Levant. In addition to upgrading security cooperation between the US and Israel, the Obama administration’s policies area aimed at containing Iran’s regional influence, creating stronger and more robust strategic alliances with Saudi Arabia, the GCC and its Sunni Arab allies, and forging closer strategic ties with Egypt as both a counterbalance to radical Sunni Islamism and to Iran’s strategic ambitions.
The impact of these emerging realities would have important implications for the rest of the world as well. Japan, based on its increasingly deepening strategic interests and its need to mitigate its economy’s prolonged reliance on China’s insatiable demand for energy commodities, is increasingly well-positioned to meet South Korea’s energy needs and establish a strategic economic and military entente against a defiant North Korea that poses an increasing threat to regional security. This is in keeping with the broader trend of intensifying Japanese-Saudi Arabian strategic cooperation, which resulted in the signing by the two countries of a separate bilateral intelligence sharing and counter terrorism cooperation agreement during Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s recent visit to Riyadh.
Complementing these emerging geopolitical realities, this month’s talks between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem signalled that the Japanese strategic outlook in the Middle East would accentuate its traditional focus on energy security in the Persian Gulf and the wider Eastern Mediterranean, and also include moves to establish a more robust strategic presence in the African Continent and East Asia. Some will question whether the demand for foreign oil and gas amidst a growing Chinese demand in the Asian region will unwittingly deepen China’s geopolitical footprint in East Asia, as Beijing seeks to deepen its strategic economic and military ties with Russia, the Central Asian republics and Central Asia’s energy producing neighbours in addition to acquiring additional influence in Asia’s first Islamic democracy, Indonesia.
In conclusion, the evolving geopolitical realities demand creative responses from increasingly well-positioned po
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